Kim Jong Il’s Death

The death of Kim Jong Il is causing some unease in Southeast Asia about how the transition now under way in North Korea might affect its military ties to Myanmar—another nation long viewed with suspicion by the West but which is now introducing a series of political and economic reforms.

There has been a marked warming in relations between Myanmar and the U.S. after the military handed over power to a nominally civilian government in March. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pressed the country’s new rulers in a ground-breaking visit earlier this month to make a decisive break with Pyongyang and prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons technology in order to push the blossoming relationship further forward.

During her visit, Mrs. Clinton said Myanmar’s President Thein Sein had “stated his determination to sever” military links with North Korea. And on Monday, a key political adviser to the Myanmar government, Ko Ko Hlaing, said that the country regards South Korea as a more likely future partner than the regime in Pyongyang.

“Myanmar is changing towards democracy,” Mr. Ko Ko Hlaing said. “If (North Korea) remains on its old path, I don’t think there will be many sectors where we can cooperate with them.”

After Kim Jong Il’s death, however, “there is a little more uncertainty about Myanmar’s military plans because of the situation in North Korea, although it does appear that Myanmar has been trying to make a break from its old links to North Korea,” said one senior diplomat in the region.

“There is a rapprochement under way between Myanmar and the West, and the United States in particular,” the diplomat said. “If the relationship between Myanmar and North Korea changes in light of Kim Jong Il’s death, then that could be unsettling.”

Concerns about Myanmar’s longer-term plans—and how North Korea might fit into them—have never been fully dispelled. Analysts say that’s especially true if the country backslides on its political reforms or if its powerful armed forces balk at the speed of the changes now under way. It is also unclear how the transition in North Korea might affect Pyongyang’s attitude toward Myanmar.

U.S. and other analysts have long been concerned by what they say are Myanmar’s plans to develop a nuclear weapons capability. Shortly before Mrs. Clinton flew to Myanmar, Sen. Richard Lugar said that the U.S. Senate’s Foreign Relations Committee received information five years ago that indicated Myanmar, also known as Burma, intended to develop nuclear weapons with North Korea’s help.

On Dec. 9, Myanmar denied cooperating with North Korea on nuclear weapons technology, the first time the country had commented on the allegations. The weekly Pyi Myanmar newspaper quoted Parliament speaker Thura Shwe Mann—a former top general and the third-highest ranking leader in the previous military government—as saying the two countries had signed a memorandum of understanding on developing their armed forces, but that this didn’t include the transfer of nuclear technology.

“We studied their air defense system, weapons factories, aircraft and ships. Their armed forces are quite strong so we just agreed to cooperate with them if necessary,” said Thura Shwe Mann, whom analysts said led a military delegation to North Korea in 2008.

European Pressphoto Agency

TVs flashed reports on the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il at a shopping mall in Seoul on Monday.

Advisers to the Myanmar government, meanwhile, have said the country’s top political leadership is determined to break away from its previous dependence on countries such as China. Instead, they said, Mr. Thein Sein and other top leaders want to forge new relationships in the international mainstream by opening up Myanmar’s economy and unrolling further political reforms with the ultimate goal of encouraging the U.S. and European Union to drop harsh sanctions against the country.

Kim Jong Il

“The decision has been made, and there’s no going back,” one adviser, Nay Zin Latt, said in a recent interview.